EU Vote Outcome Far From Certain
Speaking of the EU, and once again the chattering classes and the political establishment appear to have been lulled into what I would suggest is a false sense of security over the outcome of the forthcoming in/out vote.
There is an assumption that warnings from business leaders, the fear of change and then the urging from our mainstream political leaders will have the electorate of Britain lining up in droves to vote ‘Yes’ to stay in the EU.
This assumption is dangerous, because the one thing that is absolutely clear from 7th May is that we have a volatile electorate who don’t so much have a healthy cynicism towards politicians and big business, but more an absolute contempt.
“To secure victory the ‘Yes’ camp needs more energy, excitement and connection than I am sensing at the moment.”
I am not suggesting that the pro – Europeans recruit celebrity hippies or cross dressing comedians to promote their campaign – that approach failed miserably for Labour in May – but engagement with a business community that is ‘real’, an admission that many things within the EU do need to be challenged and changed, and a serious, mature debate about immigration is the very least people will expect.
If I was a betting man I would say the UK will remain a member of the EU – but it will be a much closer run thing than some are anticipating at the moment.